Market Brain

What is actually driving the tape right now.

Regime first, drivers second, transmission chains third. No directional calls anywhere on this page.

Regime: Range

Regime radar

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Hover an axis to read what it means for today's conditions.

Regime reasoning

Fact: Realised volatility on US500 sits in the 22nd percentile of the last twelve months, and the 5-day range is the narrowest since March.
Interpretation: Compression before a scheduled catalyst usually reflects positioning being reduced, not conviction.
Scenario: An expansion is more likely than continued compression once CPI lands, in either direction.
Uncertainty: Compression can persist for days. Volatility percentile is descriptive, not predictive, and says nothing about direction.

Instrument drivers

XAUUSD

Gold

Metals

2,412.60

+0.62% today

Real yields easing, defensive bid

EURUSD

Euro / Dollar

1.0842

-0.18% today

Rate-differential drift, pre-CPI caution

US500

S&P 500

Indices

5,318.4

+0.24% today

Earnings breadth vs rate sensitivity

BTCUSD

Bitcoin

Crypto

63,940

-1.35% today

Liquidity conditions, risk appetite

USDJPY

Dollar / Yen

156.28

+0.31% today

Yield gap, intervention risk

UKOIL

Brent crude

Energy

82.14

+0.87% today

Supply headlines, demand expectations

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Macro Map

Select an instrument to see only the relationships that reach it.

Inflation → policy → yields → currency

Touches this instrument

Softer prints pull cuts forward
Cut pricing drags the front end lower
Narrower yield gap weakens the dollar
Lower real yields support gold
A softer dollar lifts dollar-priced assets

Growth → earnings → risk appetite

Not in play

Demand feeds revenue expectations
Better earnings raise appetite for risk
Appetite flows into high-beta assets first

Energy → inflation expectations → policy

Touches this instrument

Fuel costs pass into headline inflation
Un-anchored expectations force a response
Divergent policy repricing moves currencies
Terms-of-trade hit for importers