Calendar
Only the events that touch what you trade.
Filtered to your watchlist, ranked by the risk window they create rather than by a generic impact star rating.
| Time | Event | Region | Touches | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | EU flash inflation (YoY) | Euro area | EURUSD | Elevated |
| 13:30 | US Consumer Price Index | United States | XAUUSD · EURUSD · US500 | High |
| 14:30 | US cash equity open | United States | US500 | Elevated |
| 16:00 | Crude oil inventories | United States | UKOIL | Low |
| 23:50 | Japan trade balance | Japan | USDJPY | Low |
Event intelligence
US CPI (YoY)
Release window
Product demo
Previous
3.4%
Consensus
3.2%
Actual
—
Why it matters
CPI is the highest-variance scheduled release for rate expectations. The market trades the surprise versus consensus, then re-trades the core services component once the detail lands.
Already priced
Two cuts are already priced this year. A 3.2% print alone changes little — the surprise has to be in the core detail.
Transmission chain
- CPI surprise
- Rate expectations
- 2y yields
- US dollar
- Gold & equities
Scenarios — conditions, never predictions or probabilities
- What would create it
- Components landing broadly where consensus expects, with no large revision to the prior month.
- Expected volatility conditions
- A brief liquidity gap on release, then conditions typically normalizing back toward the pre-release range.
Instruments affected
- XAUUSDRange-bound, spread widens briefly
- US500Relief drift, low follow-through
- EURUSDWhipsaw, then back to pre-release
What would confirm it: Price returning inside the pre-release range within the first half hour and spreads normalizing.
What would invalidate it: An in-line headline with a large revision to the prior month behaves like a surprise.
What remains uncertain: An in-line headline can still hide a component surprise that only shows up in the detail tables.
A scenario is context for your own planning. It is never a trade recommendation.
- Fact
- Consensus is 3.2% against a previous print of 3.4%. Two cuts are priced for this year.
- Interpretation
- The market is positioned for disinflation to continue at a slower pace.
- Scenario
- A surprise in core services is the branch most likely to reprice the front end.
- Uncertainty
- Reaction to an inflation print is frequently reversed within thirty minutes. Scenarios describe conditions, not modeled probabilities, and no likelihood is assigned to any branch.
Risk windows · your timezone
- 08:00LowLondon open — spreads normalise after 15 minutes
- 10:00MediumEU flash inflation, medium impact on EUR crosses
- 13:30HighUS CPI — highest-impact window of the day
- 14:30MediumUS cash open — index volatility expansion
- 19:00LowLate session, thinning liquidity